← ProjectCCG - PTM Store Championships - 01-18-2026
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at ProjectCCG - PTM Store Championships - 01-18-2026
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
7-4-0
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1487
· median 1487
· range 1458–1516
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1234
Q3 1495
1736
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neos | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Water Chess | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
