← ProjectCCG - PTM Store Championships - 01-18-2026
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at ProjectCCG - PTM Store Championships - 01-18-2026
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1561
· median 1561
· range 1561–1561
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1234
Q3 1495
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neos | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
