EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 24.0% | 23 | 69.6% | 64.8% | 55.6% | 55.2% | 1342 | — |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 8.0% | 9 | 44.4% | 48.9% | 52.2% | 53.3% | 1323 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 70.0% | 55.8% | 51.3% | 50.2% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.1% | 50.6% | 46.1% | 1399 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.1% | 49.7% | 50.2% | 1468 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 16.0% | 16 | 50.0% | 45.1% | 49.2% | 48.0% | 1352 | — |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 49.1% | 48.8% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 8.0% | 8 | 43.8% | 50.1% | 47.8% | 49.3% | 1298 | — |
| 9 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 55.1% | 47.7% | 53.6% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 45.0% | 38.2% | 47.5% | 44.3% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Suited | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.3% | 44.6% | 48.6% | 1285 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 42.7% | 41.5% | 44.8% | 1129 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 4.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.2% | 33.3% | 38.1% | 1147 | ↓ low |