Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at KYD PTM Store Champion
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
8-3-3
overall winrate
67.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1443
· median 1443
· range 1416–1471
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1262
Q3 1447
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
