Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at KYD PTM Store Champion
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1401
· median 1401
· range 1320–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1262
Q3 1447
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
