Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at KYD PTM Store Champion
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Fractal | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Butler's Augury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overwhelming Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |