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Wind SeiryuuTier 1

at KYD PTM Store Champion

decks
6 (13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32 14-14-4
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1% avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
47.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1363 · median 1331 · range 1246–1542 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106 Q1 1262 Q3 1447 1591
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Oblation 9.1% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 43.1% -4.0
Wind Crux Lorraine 9.1% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 32.1% -13.4
Wind Slice & Dice 6.8% 4 1-1-2 50.0% 50.0% 50.9% +0.6
Wind Wakeup Combo 6.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.3% -4.2
Fire Aetherwing 4.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 68.8% +18.0
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 61.1% +10.7
Fire Crux Merlin 4.5% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.9% -5.0
Horse and Taxes 4.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 59.7% +9.3
Wind Shadowstrike 4.5% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 29.1% -15.6
Arcane 2.3% 0
Fire Aggro 2.3% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.3% 0
Fire Suzaku 2.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.7% -5.0
Fire Umbra Alice 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.8% +7.6
Water Aetherwing 2.3% 0
Water Fractal 2.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.2% -4.6
Wind Allies 2.3% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.3% 0
Wind Merlin 2.3% 0
Wind Neos 2.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.2% +6.9
Wind Umbra Diana 2.3% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Brisk Windtrotter. Losers more often ran: Forest Cake, Royal Oathguard, Tricastles of Lucenia.

Played more by winners
Brisk Windtrotter
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Forest Cake
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Royal Oathguard
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Tricastles of Lucenia
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Annul Spell
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Forest Cake -1.00 0 3 0
Orb of Sealing +0.67 2 0 0
Candlelight Hourglass -0.67 0 2 0
Displace +0.67 2 0 1
Stifling Trap -0.67 0 2 1
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.67 0 2 0
Topsy Decree +0.67 2 0 0
Sunblessed Gazelle -0.67 0 2 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.67 2 0 0
Lost Providence +0.67 2 0 1
Crystallized Destiny -0.67 0 2 0
Fairy Whispers +0.67 2 0 0
Royal Oathguard -0.33 1 2 0
Noble Dissolution -0.33 0 1 2
Tricastles of Lucenia -0.33 1 2 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.33 0 1 2
Brisk Windtrotter +0.33 2 1 0
Dream Fairy -0.33 0 1 2
Annul Spell -0.33 1 2 0
Innervate Agility -0.33 0 1 2
Enfeebling Orb +0.33 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +0.33 1 0 0
Scout the Land +0.00 1 1 1
Rictus Tiding +0.00 1 1 1
Beseech the Winds +0.00 1 1 1
Ducal Seal +0.00 1 1 1
Aesan Protector +0.00 1 1 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +0.00 1 1 0
Incapacitate +0.00 1 1 0
Reclaim +0.00 1 1 0
Longtail Grovesward +0.00 1 1 0
Staggering Strike +0.00 1 1 0
Tempest Downfall +0.00 1 1 0
Windmill Engineer +0.00 1 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 0
Trained Hawk +0.00 1 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.00 1 1 0
Zephyr +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/41910/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu