EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card's Village Store champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 3.7% | 8 | 87.5% | 73.2% | 60.3% | 61.5% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 70.0% | 48.0% | 52.5% | 47.8% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.3% | 52.5% | 53.9% | 1308 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 11.1% | 18 | 69.4% | 55.4% | 52.4% | 50.6% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 60.0% | 69.0% | 52.1% | 57.8% | 1313 | — |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 39.4% | 51.2% | 47.1% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Tera Silvie | 1 | 3.7% | 7 | 64.3% | 68.4% | 50.6% | 54.9% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 7.4% | 11 | 40.9% | 49.3% | 50.6% | 52.2% | 1280 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 3 | 11.1% | 14 | 39.3% | 34.0% | 49.2% | 46.4% | 1335 | — |
| 10 | Water Astra Diana | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 48.8% | 48.1% | 1370 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 45.0% | 49.1% | 48.1% | 49.6% | 1267 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 47.8% | 47.6% | 1305 | — |
| 13 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.4% | 47.5% | 50.0% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.3% | 47.5% | 47.9% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.3% | 46.7% | 51.1% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.3% | 46.0% | 47.8% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Wind Vanitas | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.3% | 44.0% | 48.2% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.8% | 43.3% | 45.8% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 20.8% | 40.0% | 35.7% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.4% | 40.0% | 44.3% | 1236 | ↓ low |