← Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
decks
4
(12.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
8-11-2
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.1%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1312
· range 1064–1535
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1215
Q3 1388
1688
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
