← Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
Water FractalTier 2
at Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-1-1
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
76.2%
avg ELO +12.6 per match
expected value
57.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1432
· range 1432–1432
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1215
Q3 1388
1688
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Neos | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
