← Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.4% | -4.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 12.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |