← Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
Fire Tera SilvieTier 1
at Island Phantom Monarchs Grand Archive Store Championships
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1224
· median 1224
· range 1220–1227
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1215
Q3 1388
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 12.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
