Fire Crux MageTier 2
at PTM Regional
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-5-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1232
· median 1232
· range 1070–1393
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1168
Q3 1403
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
