Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at PTM Regional
decks
4
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-6-4
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.8%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1430
· range 1186–1558
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1168
Q3 1403
1558
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.5% | -6.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.9% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.7% | -10.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Merlin | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
