Water AetherwingTier 1
at PTM Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.5% | +6.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.4% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |