EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Shadowstrike
58.3%
↑ top
1st
Water Aetherwing
59.5%
↑ top
3rd
Water Luxem Assassin
56.1%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 9.4% | 16 | 81.2% | 68.4% | 59.5% | 56.6% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 49.8% | 58.3% | 50.3% | 1542 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 63.7% | 56.1% | 55.1% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 56.9% | 54.4% | 53.3% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 58.3% | 53.9% | 52.3% | 52.0% | 1317 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 41.4% | 51.8% | 46.6% | 1558 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 54.5% | 58.3% | 51.5% | 52.8% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 9.4% | 18 | 52.8% | 58.2% | 50.9% | 53.3% | 1284 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.8% | 50.0% | 47.8% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 44.4% | 40.8% | 48.8% | 47.0% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 50.0% | 54.8% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 1265 | — |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 43.6% | 47.3% | 44.7% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.2% | 46.7% | 46.5% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 2 | 6.2% | 7 | 28.6% | 48.5% | 46.2% | 50.2% | 1109 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 51.9% | 45.7% | 50.2% | 1091 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 51.8% | 45.6% | 50.2% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 30.0% | 34.4% | 45.2% | 43.9% | 1268 | — |
| 18 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 9.4% | 17 | 35.3% | 38.3% | 44.2% | 44.3% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.4% | 42.1% | 43.5% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Neos | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 48.3% | 38.9% | 47.7% | 1093 | ↓ low |