← KouritenSG Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at KouritenSG Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infinite Scintillation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Amethyst's Glow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Surreal Figment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |