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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at KouritenSG Store Championship
decks
2
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1354
· median 1354
· range 1182–1525
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1229
Q3 1397
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
