← KouritenSG Store Championship
Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at KouritenSG Store Championship
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1142
· median 1142
· range 1142–1142
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1229
Q3 1397
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
