← KouritenSG Store Championship
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at KouritenSG Store Championship
decks
5
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-7-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.0%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1361
· median 1388
· range 1205–1460
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1229
Q3 1397
1633
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.1% | -20.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.5% | +11.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
