← KouritenSG Store Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at KouritenSG Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.5% | -11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |