← KouritenSG Store Championship
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at KouritenSG Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.9% | +20.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restoring Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisonous Apple | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |