← 漫果子大直店1/11 PTM店冠賽

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 漫果子大直店1/11 PTM店冠賽. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Wind Wakeup Combo
57.4%
11.4% share · 23 matches
↑ top
1st
Fire Umbra Guardian
58.6%
2.9% share · 9 matches
↑ top
3rd
Wind Byakko
57.3%
2.9% share · 6 matches
↑ top
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 2.9% 9 83.3% 82.6% 58.6% 61.2% 1407 ↑ top
2 Wind Wakeup Combo 4 11.4% 23 67.4% 55.6% 57.4% 54.0% 1473 ↑ top
3 Wind Byakko 1 2.9% 6 66.7% 49.0% 57.3% 53.5% 1438 ↑ top
4 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 2.9% 8 75.0% 71.1% 56.7% 58.8% 1401 ↑ top
5 Fire Arcane 1 2.9% 5 40.0% 34.8% 54.0% 49.8% 1471 ↑ top
6 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 2.9% 7 64.3% 46.4% 53.6% 49.2% 1495 ↑ top
7 Fire Crux Lorraine 3 8.6% 19 60.5% 62.4% 53.4% 54.3% 1341 —
8 Water Aetherwing 3 8.6% 18 55.6% 60.4% 52.8% 55.6% 1337 —
9 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 2.9% 6 66.7% 56.5% 51.5% 50.4% 1379 —
10 Fire Crux Merlin 1 2.9% 6 33.3% 42.5% 50.0% 50.5% 1386 —
11 Wind Shadowstrike 5 14.3% 22 43.2% 42.5% 46.9% 46.6% 1378 —
12 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 2.9% 6 33.3% 43.0% 46.7% 47.5% 1211 ↓ low
13 Fire Crux Mage 1 2.9% 4 25.0% 41.7% 44.0% 45.7% 1166 ↓ low
14 Fire Suited 1 2.9% 5 40.0% 39.0% 44.0% 42.8% 1511 ↑ top
15 Water Astra Cleric 1 2.9% 6 33.3% 47.7% 44.0% 47.8% 1161 ↓ low
16 Wind Astra Cleric 1 2.9% 3 16.7% 31.4% 43.8% 41.5% 1302 —
17 Fire Suzaku 2 5.7% 9 33.3% 47.8% 43.6% 48.1% 1141 ↓ low
18 Wind Seiryuu 2 5.7% 10 30.0% 34.7% 41.4% 41.1% 1331 —
19 Water Allies 1 2.9% 4 37.5% 50.2% 40.6% 47.7% 1317 —
20 Fire Oblation 2 5.7% 10 35.0% 33.5% 39.6% 38.7% 1308 —
21 Fire Umbra Alice 1 2.9% 4 0.0% 39.1% 38.1% 46.0% 1023 ↓ low