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Fire AetherwingTier 1

at Illusive TCG Presents ONLINE WEBCAM REGIONAL

decks
7 (11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
37 20-16-1
overall winrate
55.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2% avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
53.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1349 · median 1342 · range 1180–1597 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029 Q1 1255 Q3 1418 1597
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 12.7% 5 5-0-0 100.0% 77.8% 63.6% +7.8
Water Fractal 9.5% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.5% +2.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 7.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 56.5% +6.2
Fire Crux Mage 6.3% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.7% -0.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 49.7% -0.3
Wind Seiryuu 6.3% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.6% -4.0
Water Aetherwing 4.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.4% -7.3
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.2% -4.4
Fire Slimes 3.2% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.7% -6.2
Water Genbu 3.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 45.8% -4.0
Water Luxem Assassin 3.2% 0
Fire Arcane 1.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 47.6% -2.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.2% +8.3
Fire Oblation 1.6% 0
Fire Suited 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.1
Fire Tera Tamer 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.0% +11.1
Fire Umbra Diana 1.6% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.6% 0
Horse and Taxes 1.6% 0
Water Allies 1.6% 0
Wind Arcane 1.6% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.9% +7.8
Wind Luxem Zander 1.6% 0
Wind Merlin 1.6% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 60.7% +8.0
Wind Umbra Guardian 1.6% 0
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Ranger Boots +1.00 2 0 0
Evasive Positioning -1.00 0 2 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +1.00 2 0 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 2 0 0
Flickering Cinder -1.00 0 2 0
Palvor Sword +1.00 2 0 0
Ignis Deus +1.00 2 0 0
Quickdraw Piercer -1.00 0 2 0
Stolen Chance -1.00 0 2 0
Peer Beyond -1.00 0 2 0
Aetherwing's Ward -1.00 0 2 0
Incendiary Shot -1.00 0 2 0
Manabolt Convergence -1.00 0 2 0
Inert Sword +1.00 2 0 0
Contraband Revolver -1.00 0 2 0
Blazing Throw -1.00 0 2 0
Ashwound Shot -1.00 0 2 0
Immolation Trap +1.00 2 0 0
Reposition +1.00 2 0 0
Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor +1.00 2 0 0
Singeing Leap +1.00 2 0 0
Prudent Nock +0.50 1 0 1
Ranger Strides +0.50 1 0 1
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.50 0 1 0
Enfeebling Orb +0.50 1 0 1
Topsy Decree +0.50 1 0 1
Aetheric Reforging -0.50 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 0 1 0
The Looking Glass +0.50 1 0 1
Piercing Aetherfuel -0.50 0 1 0
Rocket Jump -0.50 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/42709/archetypes/Fire Aetherwing