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Fire Crux MageTier 2
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Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.8 |
| Wind Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |