Fire AetherwingTier 2
at CakeTCG PTM Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.5% | -4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 47.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flickering Cinder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashwound Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |