Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at CakeTCG PTM Online Regional
decks
2
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-3-3
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1481
· median 1481
· range 1423–1538
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1302
Q3 1435
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
