Fire SlimesTier 2
at CakeTCG PTM Online Regional
decks
2
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
8-3-3
overall winrate
67.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
54.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1474
· range 1468–1481
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1302
Q3 1435
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
