Water Astra RangerTier 2
at CakeTCG PTM Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.7% | -1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanishing Eclipse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pleiades, Celestial Genesis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetherial Projection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meteoric Volley | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cometary Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Radiant Vega | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backdash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poised Occlusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stellarion Shift | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sidereal Spellshot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |