Dawn of AshesTier 3
at リージョナル In Hasuya
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
42.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1159
· median 1159
· range 1159–1159
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1194
Q3 1409
1619
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
