Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at リージョナル In Hasuya
decks
4
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
13-7-5
overall winrate
62.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1448
· median 1444
· range 1370–1536
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1194
Q3 1409
1619
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Allies | 6.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.2% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
