Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at リージョナル In Hasuya
decks
2
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-6-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.7%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1269
· range 1231–1307
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1194
Q3 1409
1619
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 30.4% | -12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
