Water FractalTier 2
at リージョナル In Hasuya
decks
5
(6.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
16-17-1
overall winrate
48.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1300
· median 1327
· range 1180–1417
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1194
Q3 1409
1619
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.5% | +4.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
