Water AlliesTier 2
at リージョナル In Hasuya
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 59.6% | +5.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tweedledee, Contrarian Poet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |