← SPELLROO GAMING 2.15 Grand Archive TCG Store Championship (Constructed)
Fire ArcaneTier 1
at SPELLROO GAMING 2.15 Grand Archive TCG Store Championship (Constructed)
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1379
· median 1379
· range 1211–1547
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1104
Q1 1199
Q3 1459
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +12.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
