← SPELLROO GAMING 2.15 Grand Archive TCG Store Championship (Constructed)
Water FractalTier 1
at SPELLROO GAMING 2.15 Grand Archive TCG Store Championship (Constructed)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Cats | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Another Beginning | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |