← MVP X PTM Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at MVP X PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1154
· median 1154
· range 1154–1154
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1154
Q3 1408
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 21.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
