← MVP X PTM Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at MVP X PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-2-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1131
· median 1131
· range 1131–1131
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1154
Q3 1408
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 21.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
