← MVP X PTM Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at MVP X PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-3-4
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.5%
avg ELO +4.6 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1405
· median 1405
· range 1401–1409
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1154
Q3 1408
1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 21.9% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
