← Happyland Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Happyland Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 100.0% | 81.7% | 60.0% | 61.6% | 1305 | — |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 80.0% | 60.3% | 58.6% | 56.6% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 13.6% | 10 | 60.0% | 59.8% | 54.8% | 54.8% | 1299 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 49.4% | 54.3% | 49.9% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 22.7% | 19 | 52.6% | 48.4% | 51.8% | 50.2% | 1287 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.7% | 51.1% | 52.8% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.5% | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.6% | 46.7% | 46.0% | 1259 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 13.6% | 12 | 37.5% | 45.9% | 45.3% | 47.7% | 1303 | — |
| 10 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 32.5% | 45.0% | 40.6% | 1346 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 2 | 9.1% | 8 | 25.0% | 37.1% | 43.8% | 44.4% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | 42.8% | 1252 | — |
| 13 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 45.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | 990 | ↓ low |