EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ZARC PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 80.0% | 53.3% | 62.2% | 54.1% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 100.0% | 64.9% | 60.0% | 55.4% | 1468 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 2 | 9.5% | 10 | 70.0% | 70.1% | 55.3% | 57.2% | 1281 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 9.5% | 10 | 65.0% | 51.8% | 55.3% | 51.0% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Diana | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 54.3% | 54.5% | 1227 | — |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 3 | 14.3% | 14 | 57.1% | 58.3% | 52.1% | 53.1% | 1291 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 59.6% | 49.3% | 53.4% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.0% | 48.6% | 48.9% | 1202 | — |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.5% | 7 | 35.7% | 40.1% | 46.4% | 46.3% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 30.0% | 39.7% | 45.6% | 45.9% | 1060 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.9% | 45.0% | 47.2% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Slimes | 2 | 9.5% | 8 | 18.8% | 40.7% | 42.7% | 46.3% | 1087 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 20.0% | 20.7% | 42.2% | 37.1% | 1346 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.9% | 42.2% | 43.5% | 1168 | ↓ low |