← Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
decks
3
(7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-10-0
overall winrate
41.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.9%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1261
· median 1281
· range 1139–1364
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1192
Q3 1420
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.0% | +11.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
