← Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Fire SlimesTier 2
at Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blitz Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianye, Dawn's Keep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sly Songstress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamelash Subduer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Totem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghastly Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Decompose | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Melodious Flute | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Direwolf Alpha | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Neos Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |