← Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Wind ByakkoTier 2
at Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-8-0
overall winrate
27.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 1139–1276
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1192
Q3 1420
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
