← Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
decks
3
(7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
10-5-4
overall winrate
63.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.7%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1405
· median 1490
· range 1182–1543
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1192
Q3 1420
1543
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
