← Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1291
· median 1291
· range 1150–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1192
Q3 1420
1543
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Water Chess | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
