← Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive: Phantom Monarchs - Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 11.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.3% | -11.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.0% | -11.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -19.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.2% | +1.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.3 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Frozen Dismissal, Viridian Protective Trinket. Losers more often ran: Fractal of Intrusion.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Golden Gambit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Doubled Pawns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Whim's Monarch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |