CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	5	14.7%	8-14-3	38.0%	42.6%	43.9%	45.6%	1282	—
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	5	14.7%	13-7-3	63.0%	60.4%	56.4%	55.7%	1328	—
3		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	3	8.8%	10-6-3	60.5%	56.7%	51.9%	50.7%	1379	↑ top
4		Fire Aetherwing	Tier 1	2	5.9%	8-3-1	70.8%	62.1%	56.4%	55.3%	1323	—
5		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 1	2	5.9%	6-3-2	63.6%	64.4%	50.5%	51.5%	1355	↑ top
6		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	2	5.9%	5-6-0	45.5%	45.1%	45.2%	45.2%	1295	—
7		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 2	2	5.9%	3-6-1	35.0%	42.4%	45.3%	45.3%	1328	—
8		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	1	2.9%	3-4-0	42.9%	48.2%	52.9%	51.6%	1364	↑ top
9		Fire Exia	Tier 2	1	2.9%	3-1-2	66.7%	49.3%	51.8%	48.3%	1418	↑ top
10		Fire Oblation	Tier 2	1	2.9%	1-4-1	25.0%	43.4%	43.3%	46.5%	1152	↓ low
11		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-1-3	58.3%	55.9%	52.7%	53.5%	1193	↓ low
12		Water Aetherwing	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-3-1	41.7%	49.3%	51.0%	53.3%	1343	—
13		Water Chess	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-3-1	41.7%	53.6%	48.7%	51.6%	1170	↓ low
14		Water Crux Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.9%	0-3-0	0.0%	36.7%	34.4%	38.9%	1107	↓ low
15		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	1	2.9%	0-5-0	0.0%	27.2%	40.0%	41.0%	1118	↓ low
16		Water Tera Mage	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-2-2	50.0%	61.0%	54.3%	57.7%	1202	↓ low
17		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	2.9%	4-1-1	75.0%	46.9%	56.2%	48.9%	1464	↑ top
18		Wind Arcane	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-3-1	41.7%	38.3%	46.4%	43.9%	1244	↓ low
19		Wind Byakko	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-3-1	41.7%	48.4%	44.2%	46.8%	1333	—
20		Wind Merlin	Tier 2	1	2.9%	1-2-1	37.5%	42.4%	51.0%	50.1%	1264	—
21		Wind Wakeup Combo	Tier 2	1	2.9%	4-1-1	75.0%	46.9%	56.2%	48.9%	1464	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Crux Lorraine 5 decks · 14.7%
• Wind Shadowstrike 5 decks · 14.7%
• Wind Seiryuu 3 decks · 8.8%
• Fire Aetherwing 2 decks · 5.9%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 2 decks · 5.9%
• Fire Suzaku 2 decks · 5.9%
• Water Astra Ranger 2 decks · 5.9%
• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 2.9%
• Fire Exia 1 deck · 2.9%
• Fire Oblation 1 deck · 2.9%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Chess 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Crux Assassin 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Tera Mage 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Arcane 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Byakko 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Merlin 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Wakeup Combo 1 deck · 2.9%