← CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-1-3
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1193
· median 1193
· range 1193–1193
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1191
Q3 1401
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
