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Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Chess | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 5 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 5 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |